Decision Making… The Power Law: Energizing Returns on Chance in Innovation and Investing 7 Jan 2026 The Power Law reminds us to think bigger. People systematically misperceive long tail risk, which creates arbitrage opportunities for those who manage uncertainty well. We discuss five strategies to identify…
Corporate… Cultivating Cohesive Startup Boards to Thrive in Crucible Moments 19 Nov 202522 Dec 2025 In 2000, amidst the DotCom bust, I was asked to mediate a dispute between a CEO and his Board. The company, having raised $100 million and on the brink of…
books… Founder’s Dilemmas: Noam Wasserman 20 Sep 202521 Nov 2025 “If entrepreneurship is a battle, most casualties stem from friendly fire or self-inflicted wounds.” The Founder’s Dilemmas is the bible that all aspiring entrepreneurs should read before starting a company.…
Financial… Total Available Market: Assessing Opportunity in Emerging and Invisible Markets 4 Aug 202512 Aug 2025 TAM can be a valuable tool for founders, but it is often misused, especially when startups pursue markets that do not yet exist. This article explains how founders and investors…
Investing… Seeking Alpha: Thesis Driven v. Thematic Investing 28 Jul 2025 As noted last week, Investment Filters establish boundary conditions for investment. Investment Filters conserve energy both for investors and entrepreneurs by quickly eliminating over 90% of investment opportunities. But Investment…
Author… Be Exothermic: Igniting the Startup Flywheel 16 Jan 202523 Jan 2025 Last week was a reawakening of sorts. A four-hour drive for my first in person business meeting since last March seemed a minor inconvenience after a lockdown that included nearly…
Author… Founder Fit: Insight Driven Innovation 16 Jan 202523 Jan 2025 Founder Opportunity Fit Framework Venture investors profess preference for industry disruptors, yet this review finds that investors more readily back incremental innovation with credentialed founders than industry disruptors sponsored by…
Business Area… Experience vs. Insight: What Makes a Successful Founder? 16 Jan 202523 Jan 2025 What do Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg, Elon Musk, Larry Page, Sergey Brin and Michael Dell have in common? These founders of Microsoft, Facebook, Tesla, Google and Dell have created pathbreaking…
Business Area… Investing in Generative Artificial Intelligence & the Gartner Hype Cycle: Is the Hype Worth It? 15 Jan 202519 Jan 2025 “We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett, 1998 Berkshire Hathaway annual report Is now a good…
Business Area… Seeing Clearly: Three Startup Strategies to Survive & Thrive the Gartner Hype Cycle 15 Jan 202523 Jan 2025 Apple Vision Pro, released in February, presents a bold vision for augmented and virtual reality (AR/VR). AR/VR has promised for decades to supercharge gaming, enhance education, inform work, and enliven…
Business Area… Regulatory Capture: Navigating the Third Rail of Innovation 15 Jan 202523 Jan 2025 Trailing through the darkened corridors of political power are the insidious tendrils of corporate and elite influence. A particularly pervasive and pernicious form of political influence is regulatory capture where…
Business Area… Dominant Design: The Superhighway to Industry Growth 14 Jan 202523 Jan 2025 Though Apple Vision Pro has disappointed on sales, the product is a significant step forward and the future of AR/VR remains bright. When augmented by artificial intelligence, AR/VR promises to…
Startup Cairns 