Decision Making… The Power Law: Energizing Returns on Chance in Innovation and Investing 7 Jan 2026 The Power Law reminds us to think bigger. People systematically misperceive long tail risk, which creates arbitrage opportunities for those who manage uncertainty well. We discuss five strategies to identify…
Investing… Impact Investing: Socially Responsible Investing Reimagined 4 Jan 2026 IImpact Investing is a hot market. Long the domain of development finance institutions, impact investing has moved mainstream, with the likes of Bain Capital, Calvert, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Merrill…
Decision Making… Entrepreneurial Intent: No Regret Decisions 21 Nov 2025 Entrepreneurship is a latent trait lying dormant in many and activated by intent to identify an opportunity and launch a startup. As fortune favors a prepared mind, this article presents…
Corporate… Cultivating Cohesive Startup Boards to Thrive in Crucible Moments 19 Nov 202522 Dec 2025 In 2000, amidst the DotCom bust, I was asked to mediate a dispute between a CEO and his Board. The company, having raised $100 million and on the brink of…
Financial… Chess, Computers and the Time Value of Money 19 Oct 2025 Venture fund partners are rewarded for Return on Investment. Limited partners in venture funds focus on Internal Rate of Return. Interests are generally but not always aligned. Differences emerge when…
Investing… Seeking Alpha: Second Level Thinking in Venture Capital 9 Sep 2025 Contrarian thinking is required for investors to outperform the public markets. Innovation also relies on contrarian thinking. Yet the Gartner Hype Cycle shows that mimicry is prevalent in venture capital.…
Investing… Seeking Alpha: Thesis Driven v. Thematic Investing 28 Jul 2025 As noted last week, Investment Filters establish boundary conditions for investment. Investment Filters conserve energy both for investors and entrepreneurs by quickly eliminating over 90% of investment opportunities. But Investment…
Business Area… Seeking Alpha: How Investors Derive Signal from Noise 16 Jan 202519 Jan 2025 In recent months, the investment community observed the passing of Charlie Munger and Daniel Kahneman. Munger and Kahneman came from different disciplines but shared the same objective: improving judgment in…
Business Area… Superforecasting: Ten Investment Practices to Improve Performance 16 Jan 202523 Jan 2025 Investing requires good judgment, which is blurred by bounded rationality in an uncertain world. Early-stage venture investing is further complicated by scant information in highly competitive, rapidly changing markets. Even…
Business Area… The Checklist Manifesto: Three Practices to Improve Venture Capital Performance 16 Jan 202519 Jan 2025 Summit day on Mount McKinley! Tent bound at 18,000 feet for two days in blizzard conditions, we were eager for our summit bid on the highest mountain in North America.…
Business Area… Investing in Generative Artificial Intelligence & the Gartner Hype Cycle: Is the Hype Worth It? 15 Jan 202519 Jan 2025 “We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett, 1998 Berkshire Hathaway annual report Is now a good…
Business Area… Regulatory Capture: Navigating the Third Rail of Innovation 15 Jan 202523 Jan 2025 Trailing through the darkened corridors of political power are the insidious tendrils of corporate and elite influence. A particularly pervasive and pernicious form of political influence is regulatory capture where…
Startup Cairns 