Decision Making… The Power Law: Energizing Returns on Chance in Innovation and Investing 7 Jan 2026 The Power Law reminds us to think bigger. People systematically misperceive long tail risk, which creates arbitrage opportunities for those who manage uncertainty well. We discuss five strategies to identify…
Financial… Total Available Market: Assessing Opportunity in Emerging and Invisible Markets 4 Aug 202512 Aug 2025 TAM can be a valuable tool for founders, but it is often misused, especially when startups pursue markets that do not yet exist. This article explains how founders and investors…
Financial… Six Product Market Fit Principles That Drive Startup Success 21 Jul 2025 Product Market Fit progresses through three phases: product, business and financial validation. We discuss six practices that improve startup success by accelerating progress through these three stages. “We don’t have…
Business Area… Superforecasting: Ten Investment Practices to Improve Performance 16 Jan 202523 Jan 2025 Investing requires good judgment, which is blurred by bounded rationality in an uncertain world. Early-stage venture investing is further complicated by scant information in highly competitive, rapidly changing markets. Even…
Business Area… Startup Pacing: Accelerate Growth to Win New Markets 15 Jan 202523 Jan 2025 Pacing and Performance: Be Quick but Don’t Be in a Hurry As we enjoy March Madness, the college basketball tournament is a clinic in clock management. In games calibrated for…
Business Area… The Five Forces: Five Startup Strategies for Winner Take Most Markets 14 Jan 202523 Jan 2025 “Full many a flower was meant to blush unseen and waste its fragrance on the desert air, Full many a man was meant to scale the heights but faint of…
Business Area… Exit Strategy: Reverse Engineering Successful Outcomes from the Outset 14 Jan 202523 Jan 2025 The above want ad applies as well to startups as the Antarctic: “hazardous journey, small wages … long months of complete darkness, constant danger, safe return doubtful.” Ernest Shackleton offered…
Startup Cairns 